ING: Sustainable Finance is Bouncing Back After 2024 Decline
ING predicted in February that the global sustainable finance market will complete the return to full growth for the full year.
The bank says that resilience is expected to fuel growth as predicted issuance grows to US$1.6bn. It cites geopolitical changes such as tensions in the Middle East, AI demand and steady commitment from businesses towards decarbonisation goals.
Expectations from the bank regarding sustainable debt issuance vary per region, with different factors affecting predictions for EMEA, APAC and the US.
A sustainable finance cocktail, on the rocks
In an earlier post, ING explains the global sustainable debt market as something much less intimidating: a cocktail.
They predicted that 2026 would have a much larger pour, however, the difference can be attributed to a mix of ingredients that have evolved from the last recipe.
In 2025, the bank notes that total debt issuance reached US$1.5bn as it predicted that global sustainable finance excluding ABS was set to bounce back in 2026.
The prediction rings true, as for the first half of 2026 issuance remains within the US$800-900bn market range from 2022.
The market is showing resilience, as the 2026 figure is a rise from the 2024 and 2023 dips.
Variations by region
ING predicts that there will be variation in sustainable debt issuance per region across EMEA, the US and APAC.
US
The US continues to face headwinds from policy uncertainty, which has hindered its sustainable financing market.
Issuance during the first half of 2026 plummeted by approximately 40% compared to the same periods in 2024 and 2025, though it managed to stay marginally higher than 2020 volumes.
The primary catalysts for sustainable finance in the US have been renewable energy, data centres and associated infrastructure ā with expectations that these sectors will sustain their drive into 2026 and 2027.
ING predicts that growing scrutiny of community impacts for data centres could result in more selective but higher-quality sustainable debt issuance.
EMEA
Driven by a powerful first half of the year, ING notes that EMEA has taken the lead in sustainable debt issuance for 2026, with both Q1 and Q2 volumes surpassing those of 2025.
This surge was primarily propelled by the public sector – where sovereigns, supranationals and government agencies reached a historic US$245bn in the first half, marking a 50% increase compared to 2025.
Additionally, financial institutions bolstered this upward trend, achieving a 36% year-over-year growth in issuance.
APAC
Conversely, sustainable finance volumes in APAC experienced a minor decline in the first half of 2026 relative to 2025, largely due to a deceleration in activity from financial institutions following their record-breaking first half in 2025.
Despite this slight reduction, issuance across the region has remained remarkably stable over the last five years.
APAC continues to be strongly positioned for future expansion as corporate and public entities steadily utilise sustainable funding to further their decarbonisation objectives.
